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LonelyLessDCE Decision Aid Tool

A policy decision aid to evaluate loneliness support programs for older adults in Australia, combining discrete choice evidence, costs and health economic outcomes.

Pilot policy tool For governments and health planners

What this tool does

The tool brings together discrete choice experiment results, cost data and health outcomes to give a picture of an intervention's financial viability and value.

It helps answer questions such as whether older adults are likely to join a particular program, which features matter most to them, and how much impact in health and economic terms can be expected relative to the costs. Users can configure program features, see predicted uptake, estimate willingness to pay based benefits.

Key questions for decision makers

  • Will older adults in my region actually enrol in this program configuration
  • Which design elements drive interest and which ones reduce participation
  • What are the likely benefits
  • What is the value of these benefits in monetary terms from user preferences

Evidence base

The tool combines a discrete choice experiment on loneliness support programs with Australian cost effectiveness work on older adult loneliness interventions and evidence on the economic cost of loneliness and health service use. Detailed sources and assumptions are documented in the technical appendix.

This tool is intended for policy and scenario analysis.

View technical appendix

Overview

Loneliness among older adults in Australia has measurable health and economic consequences. Evidence suggests that lonely older adults have higher risks of depression, dementia, stroke and early mortality, and that loneliness is associated with greater use of health care and productivity losses.

Community based programs that support social connection can reduce loneliness. Modelled evaluations for older Australians find that such interventions can produce positive returns on investment when health care cost savings and productivity gains are included. For example, one national scale educational friendship program for older women showed that for each dollar invested, savings of more than two dollars were projected over five years, together with millions of loneliness free days gained.

This decision aid uses discrete choice experiment estimates to predict programme uptake and willingness to pay, and links these to cost components and health outcomes.

What you can do with the tool

  • Configure program type, delivery method, frequency, duration, accesibility and participant cost
  • Estimate predicted uptake based on older adults stated preferences
  • Calculate willingness to pay based benefit measures
  • Generate briefing text and export scenario summaries for reports

Video guide

How to use the tool

  1. Start with the Attributes tab to understand each program feature and its reference level.
  2. Open the Configuration tab and give your scenario a clear name and notes.
  3. Select the program type, delivery method, frequency, duration, accessibility and participant cost.
  4. Choose whether to adjust costs for state specific cost of living and whether to include opportunity cost of participant time.
  5. Click Apply configuration to calculate uptake and economic outcomes, and review the headline recommendation and briefing text.
  6. Use the WTP outcomes, Programme uptake and Costs and benefits tabs to explore results in more detail.
  7. Save scenarios for later comparison and export a PDF summary for reports.
  8. Consult the technical appendix for a full description of methods, assumptions and evidence sources.

Key attributes and levels

The program attributes and levels in this tool are based on a discrete choice experiment with older adults in Australia.

Cost per session

Out-of-pocket fee that participants pay per session, in Australian dollars.

Accessibility

Reference level is support at home. Configurable levels are a local accessible session in the nearby area or a wider community location that may require longer travel.

Frequency of interaction

Reference level is daily contact. Configurable levels are weekly or monthly sessions. Higher frequency generally increases perceived value but may reduce feasibility.

Method of interaction

Reference level is in-person delivery. Alternatives include fully virtual sessions or hybrid models that combine in-person and online components.

Duration of each interaction

Reference level is a 30 minute interaction. Configurable levels are 2 hour sessions and 4 hour sessions, which affect both effectiveness and opportunity cost of time.

Type of support programme

Reference level is peer support. Configurable options include community engagement activities, psychological support and virtual reality based programs.

Configuration

Configure a program scenario by selecting levels for each attribute, then apply the configuration to calculate uptake and economic outcomes.

Scenario details

Programme features

Support programme (reference: peer support)

Method (reference: in person)

If no method is selected, the model assumes in person delivery.

Frequency (reference: daily)

Duration (reference: 30 minutes)

Accessibility (reference: at home)

Cost per session (AUD)

This is the participant contribution per session used in the discrete choice model.

Cost of living adjustment

When set to yes, program costs and participant fees are multiplied by a state specific cost of living factor derived from national data.

Opportunity cost of participant time

When included, the economic cost of participants time spent in sessions and travel is valued using a proportion of average hourly wages. This reflects the opportunity cost of foregone leisure or unpaid work.

Current configuration at a glance

Configure the programme on the left and click Apply configuration to see a concise summary here.

Headline recommendation

After applying a configuration, this box will show an interpretable statement about programme attractiveness, uptake and benefit cost ratios.

Briefing text

This short summary is ready to copy into emails, briefing notes or slide decks.

Willingness to pay outcomes

Willingness to pay values show how much older adults are prepared to pay for an improvement in each attribute relative to its reference level, based on trade offs in the discrete choice experiment. The values are expressed as dollars per participant per session.

For a given configuration, the tool aggregates the relevant willingness to pay contributions across attributes, multiplies by the number of sessions and participants, and reports a willingness to pay based benefit measure. This can be compared with programme costs to obtain a benefit cost ratio grounded in participant preferences.

WTP per attribute (AUD per session)

WTP based benefit summary

Apply a configuration first, then click the button above to calculate WTP based benefits for that scenario.

Predicted programme uptake

The discrete choice experiment is used to estimate the probability that an older adult chooses the configured programme instead of the opt out option. The model converts this individual probability into a predicted uptake percentage for a cohort of eligible participants.

Uptake versus non uptake

Interpretation

The explanation of results for the active configuration will appear here once the chart has been generated.

Costs and benefits

This tab combines programme cost components with several benefit measures: QALY gains, cost savings and productivity gains, loneliness free days and willingness to pay based benefits. It provides a set of benefit cost ratios.

Saved scenarios

Saved scenarios allow you to compare configurations side by side and export a compact summary for discussions.

Name State Cost adjust Include opportunity cost Cost per session (AUD) Local Wider Weekly Monthly Virtual Hybrid 2 hour 4 hour Community Counselling VR Uptake (percent) Total economic cost (A$) Total QALY benefits (A$) Total cost savings and productivity (A$) Total WTP benefits (A$) Net benefit QALY (A$) Net benefit savings (A$) Net benefit WTP (A$) Benefit cost ratio QALY Benefit cost ratio savings Benefit cost ratio WTP Loneliness free days

Interpret scenarios with Microsoft Copilot

You can use Microsoft Copilot to generate a narrative interpretation of any scenario. The button below prepares a structured prompt that includes a JSON export of the latest results and opens Copilot in a new browser tab. If clipboard access is allowed, the full prompt is copied automatically so you only need to paste it into Copilot.

If automatic copy is blocked by your browser or organisation settings, use the box below to copy the prompt manually and paste it into Copilot at copilot.microsoft.com.

Technical appendix

The technical appendix provides a full description of the discrete choice experiment, cost and outcome parameters, and calculation methods used in this tool. It also lists the Australian and international evidence that underpins the economic evaluation.

Open the appendix in a new tab.

Open technical appendix